DeFlorio, M. J., Sengupta, A., Castellano, C. M., Wang, J., Zhang, Z., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Luna Niño, R., Clemesha, R. E. S., Pan, M., Xiao, M., Kawzenuk, B., Gibson, P. B., Scheftic, W., Broxton, P. D., Switanek, M. B., Yuan, J., Dettinger, M. D., Hecht, C. W., … Anderson, M. L. (2024). From California’s Extreme Drought to Major Flooding: Evaluating and Synthesizing Experimental Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecasts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation during Winter 2022/23. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(1), E84–E104. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B. J., DeFlorio, M. J., Subramanian, A. C., Clemesha, R., Delle Monache, L., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Subseasonal Prediction of Impactful California Winter Weather in a Hybrid Dynamical‐Statistical Framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(23), e2023GL105360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105360

Zhang, Z., DeFlorio, M. J., Delle Monache, L., Subramanian, A. C., Ralph, F. M., Waliser, D. E., Zheng, M., Guan, B., Goodman, A., Molod, A. M., Vitart, F., Kumar, A., & Lin, H. (2023). Multi‐Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western U.S. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(7), e2022JD037608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037608

Castellano, C. M., DeFlorio, M. J., Gibson, P. B., Delle Monache, L., Kalansky, J. F., Wang, J., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Ralph, F. M., Subramanian, A. C., & Anderson, M. L. (2023). Development of a Statistical Subseasonal Forecast Tool to Predict California Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Based on MJO and QBO Activity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(6), e2022JD037360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037360

Wang, J., DeFlorio, M. J., Guan, B., & Castellano, C. M. (2023). Seasonality of MJO Impacts on Precipitation Extremes over the Western United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(1), 151–166. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0089.1

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B., Shulgina, T., DeFlorio, M. J., Subramanian, A. C., Guzman-Morales, J., Aguilera, R., Clemesha, R., Corringham, T. W., Delle Monache, L., Reynolds, D., Tardy, A., Small, I., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Winter wet-dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California. Climate Dynamics, 21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7

White, C. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Acharya, N., Adefisan, E. A., Anderson, M. L., Aura, S., Balogun, A. A., Bertram, D., Bluhm, S., Brayshaw, D. J., Browell, J., Büeler, D., Charlton-Perez, A., Chourio, X., Christel, I., Coelho, C. A. S., DeFlorio, M. J., Delle Monache, L., Di Giuseppe, F., … Wilson, R. G. (2022). Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(6), E1448–E1472. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1

Prince, H. D., Gibson, P. B., DeFlorio, M. J., Corringham, T. W., Cobb, A., Guan, B., Ralph, F. M., & Waliser, D. E. (2021). Genesis locations of the costliest atmospheric rivers impacting the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(20), 11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl093947

Gibson, P. B., Chapman, W. E., Altinok, A., Delle Monache, L., DeFlorio, M. J., & Waliser, D. E. (2021). Training machine learning models on climate model output yields skillful interpretable seasonal precipitation forecasts. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1), 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00225-4

Cao, Q., Shukla, S., DeFlorio, M. J., Ralph, F. M., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2021). Evaluation of the subseasonal forecast skill of floods associated with atmospheric rivers in coastal western US Watersheds. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(6), 1535–1552. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0219.1

Gibson, P. B., Waliser, D. E., Goodman, A., DeFlorio, M. J., Delle Monache, L., & Molod, A. (2020). Subseasonal-to-seasonal hindcast skill assessment of ridging events related to drought over the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 125(22). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033655

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., DeFlorio, M. J., Shulgina, T., Delle Monache, L., Subramanian, A. C., Corringham, T. W., & Ralph, F. M. (2020). Four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific and their relationship to California precipitation on daily to seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(16). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087609

Merryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Becker, E. J., Butler, A. H., Coelho, C. A. S., Danabasoglu, G., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Ferranti, L., Ilynia, T., Kumar, A., Müller, W. A., Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W., Smith, D. M., Takaya, Y., Tuma, M., … Yeager, S. (2020). Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(6), E869–E896. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1

O’Brien, T. A., Payne, A. E., Shields, C. A., Rutz, J., Brands, S., Castellano, C., Chen, J., Cleveland, W., DeFlorio, M. J., Goldenson, N., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Díaz, H. I., Kashinath, K., Kawzenuk, B., Kim, S., Krinitskiy, M., Lora, J. M., McClenny, B., Michaelis, A., … Zhou, Y. (2020, June). Detection uncertainty matters for understanding atmospheric rivers. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Gibson, P. B., Waliser, D. E., Guan, B., DeFlorio, M. J., Ralph, F. M., & Swain, D. L. (2020). Ridging associated with drought across the Western and Southwestern United States: Characteristics, trends, and predictability sources. Journal of Climate, 33(7), 2485–2508. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0439.1

DeFlorio, M. J., Waliser, D. E., Ralph, F. M., Guan, B., Goodman, A., Gibson, P. B., Asharaf, S., Delle Monache, L., Zhang, Z. H., Subramanian, A. C., Vitart, F., Lin, H., & Kumar, A. (2019). Experimental subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting of atmospheric rivers over the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 124(21), 11242–11265. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031200

Ramos, A. M., Wilson, A. M., DeFlorio, M. J., Warner, M. D., Barnes, E., Garreaud, R., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Lavers, D. A., Moore, B., Payne, A., Smallcomb, C., Sodemann, H., Wehner, M., & Ralph, F. M. (2019). 2018 International Atmospheric Rivers Conference: Multi-disciplinary studies and high-impact applications of atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric Science Letters, 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.935

Gibson, P. B., Waliser, D. E., & DeFlorio, M. J. (2019). A critical examination of a newly proposed interhemispheric teleconnection to Southwestern US winter precipitation. Nature Communications, 10. https://doi.org/ARTN 2687 10.1038/s41467-019-10528-y

DeFlorio, M. J., Waliser, D. E., Guan, B., Ralph, F. M., & Vitart, F. (2019). Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill. Climate Dynamics, 52(5–6), 3039–3060. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4309-x

Myers, T. A., Mechoso, C. R., & DeFlorio, M. J. (2018). Importance of positive cloud feedback for tropical Atlantic interhemispheric climate variability. Climate Dynamics, 51(5–6), 1707–1717. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3978-1

Myers, T. A., Mechoso, C. R., Cesana, G. V., DeFlorio, M. J., & Waliser, D. E. (2018). Cloud Feedback Key to Marine Heatwave off Baja California. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(9), 4345–4352. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078242

Myers, T. A., Mechoso, C. R., & DeFlorio, M. J. (2018). Coupling between marine boundary layer clouds and summer-to-summer sea surface temperature variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 50(3–4), 955–969. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3651-8

DeFlorio, M. J., Waliser, D. E., Guan, B., Lavers, D. A., Ralph, F. M., & Vitart, F. (2018). Global assessment of atmospheric river prediction skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19(2), 409–426. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-17-0135.1

Amaya, D. J., DeFlorio, M. J., Miller, A. J., & Xie, S. P. (2017). WES feedback and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: observations and CMIP5 comparisons. Climate Dynamics, 49(5–6), 1665–1679. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3411-1

Lou, S. J., Russell, L. M., Yang, Y., Xu, L., Lamjiri, M. A., DeFlorio, M. J., Miller, A. J., Ghan, S. J., Liu, Y., & Singh, B. (2016). Impacts of the East Asian Monsoon on springtime dust concentrations over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(13), 8137–8152. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024758

Yang, Y., Russell, L. M., Xu, L., Lou, S. J., Lamjiri, M. A., Somerville, R. C. J., Miller, A. J., Cayan, D. R., DeFlorio, M. J., Ghan, S. J., Liu, Y., Singh, B., Wang, H. L., Yoon, J. H., & Rasch, P. J. (2016). Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(11), 6321–6335. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024503

DeFlorio, M. J., Goodwin, I. D., Cayan, D. R., Miller, A. J., Ghan, S. J., Pierce, D. W., Russell, L. M., & Singh, B. (2016). Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 585–599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2600-7

DeFlorio, M. J., Ghan, S. J., Singh, B., Miller, A. J., Cayan, D. R., Russell, L. M., & Somerville, R. C. J. (2014). Semidirect dynamical and radiative effect of North African dust transport on lower tropospheric clouds over the subtropical North Atlantic in CESM 1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119(13), 2013JD020997. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020997

DeFlorio, M. J., Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., & Miller, A. J. (2013). Western US extreme precipitation events and their relation to ENSO and PDO in CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 26(12), 4231–4243. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00257.1